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 | Acesso ao texto completo restrito à biblioteca da Embrapa Agroenergia. Para informações adicionais entre em contato com cnpae.biblioteca@embrapa.br. |
Registro Completo
|
Biblioteca(s): |
Embrapa Agroenergia. |
|
Data corrente: |
02/07/2020 |
|
Data da última atualização: |
06/07/2020 |
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Tipo da produção científica: |
Artigo em Periódico Indexado |
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Circulação/Nível: |
A - 1 |
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Autoria: |
ZILLI, M.; SCARABELLO, M.; SOTERRONI, A. C.; VALIN, H.; MOSNIER, A.; LECLÈRE, D.; HAVLÍK, P.; KRAXNER, F.; LOPES, M. A.; RAMOS, F. M. |
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Afiliação: |
Marcia Zilli, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (Brasil); Marluce Scarabello, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (Brasil); Aline C. Soterroni, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espacieis (Brasil); Hugo Valin, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Aline Mosnier, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; David Leclère, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Petr Havlík, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Florian Kraxner, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; MAURICIO ANTONIO LOPES, CNPAE; Fernando M. Ramos, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. |
|
Título: |
The impact of climate change on Brazil's agriculture. |
|
Ano de publicação: |
2020 |
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Fonte/Imprenta: |
Science of the Total Environment, v. 740, n. 139384, 2020. |
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ISSN: |
0048-9697 |
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DOI: |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139384 |
|
Idioma: |
Inglês |
|
Conteúdo: |
Brazilian agricultural production provides a significant fraction of the food consumed globally, with the country among the top exporters of soybeans, sugar, and beef. However, current advances in Brazilian agriculture can be directly impacted by climate change and resulting biophysical effects. Here, we quantify these impacts until 2050 using GLOBIOM-Brazil, a global partial equilibrium model of the competition for land use between agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy that includes various refinements reflecting Brazil's specificities. For the first time, projec- tions of future agricultural areas and production are based on future crop yields provided by two Global Gridded Crop Models (EPIC and LPJmL). The climate change forcing is included through changes in climatic variables projected by five Global Climate Models in two emission pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) participating in the ISIMIP initiative. This ensemble of twenty scenarios permits accessing the robustness of the results. When com- pared to the baseline scenario, GLOBIOM-Brazil scenarios suggest a decrease in soybeans and corn production, mainly in the Matopiba region in the Northern Cerrado, and southward displacement of agricultural production to near-subtropical and subtropical regions of the Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest biomes. |
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Palavras-Chave: |
Matopiba. |
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Thesagro: |
Cana de Açúcar; Milho; Mudança Climática; Produto; Soja; Uso da Terra. |
|
Thesaurus NAL: |
Cane sugar; Climate change; Corn products; Land use; Products and commodities; Soybean products; Soybeans. |
|
Categoria do assunto: |
-- |
|
Marc: |
LEADER 02429naa a2200421 a 4500
001 2123579
005 2020-07-06
008 2020 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d
022 $a0048-9697
024 7 $ahttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139384$2DOI
100 1 $aZILLI, M.
245 $aThe impact of climate change on Brazil's agriculture.$h[electronic resource]
260 $c2020
520 $aBrazilian agricultural production provides a significant fraction of the food consumed globally, with the country among the top exporters of soybeans, sugar, and beef. However, current advances in Brazilian agriculture can be directly impacted by climate change and resulting biophysical effects. Here, we quantify these impacts until 2050 using GLOBIOM-Brazil, a global partial equilibrium model of the competition for land use between agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy that includes various refinements reflecting Brazil's specificities. For the first time, projec- tions of future agricultural areas and production are based on future crop yields provided by two Global Gridded Crop Models (EPIC and LPJmL). The climate change forcing is included through changes in climatic variables projected by five Global Climate Models in two emission pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) participating in the ISIMIP initiative. This ensemble of twenty scenarios permits accessing the robustness of the results. When com- pared to the baseline scenario, GLOBIOM-Brazil scenarios suggest a decrease in soybeans and corn production, mainly in the Matopiba region in the Northern Cerrado, and southward displacement of agricultural production to near-subtropical and subtropical regions of the Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest biomes.
650 $aCane sugar
650 $aClimate change
650 $aCorn products
650 $aLand use
650 $aProducts and commodities
650 $aSoybean products
650 $aSoybeans
650 $aCana de Açúcar
650 $aMilho
650 $aMudança Climática
650 $aProduto
650 $aSoja
650 $aUso da Terra
653 $aMatopiba
700 1 $aSCARABELLO, M.
700 1 $aSOTERRONI, A. C.
700 1 $aVALIN, H.
700 1 $aMOSNIER, A.
700 1 $aLECLÈRE, D.
700 1 $aHAVLÍK, P.
700 1 $aKRAXNER, F.
700 1 $aLOPES, M. A.
700 1 $aRAMOS, F. M.
773 $tScience of the Total Environment$gv. 740, n. 139384, 2020.
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